Can we characterise the impact of aviation on the climate? What are the aviation and climate issues? Can we compare CO2 and non-CO2 effects? What technological solutions are being studied to make aviation sustainable? Can we link the rate of growth in air traffic to the proportion of the carbon budget devoted to aviation? Can we assess the energy resources available?
A reference report
These questions have prompted ISAE-SUPAERO to write a reference report. The aim of our work is not to take sides or to answer the various questions raised, as the answers depend largely on societal choices and techno-economic developments that are impossible to predict with any certainty.
On the other hand, the aim of our report is to provide everyone, from our position as scientists, with the information they need to form informed opinions on these issues, as objectively as possible. As a knock-on effect, we also hope that this report will stimulate debate and help to shape a collective position on the crucial issues of aviation and climate.
The key messages of our “aviation and climate” guidelines
Aviation and climate issues
The purpose of our “aviation and climate” Reference Guide is to provide scientific elements that are useful for understanding aviation and climate issues. This work has been subjected to a specific review process, involving both ISAE-SUPAERO staff and external researchers from various institutes.
The 5 key messages from our report
The climate impact of aviation: estimates that depend on the scope of the study
Aviation contributes to global warming through its CO2 emissions and a number of non-CO2 effects such as condensation trails. The assessment of the impact of the aviation sector can be limited to CO2 emissions alone, or it can consider all the effects together. In the first case, commercial aviation was responsible for 2.6% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2018. If we consider all the effects (CO2 and non-CO2), commercial aviation accounted for 5.1% of the climate impact over the period 2000-2018.
Non-CO2 effects: promising strategies
Specific strategies to reduce non-CO2 effects represent a major lever for limiting the climate impact of aviation. Because of the short lifetime of non-CO2 effects, these strategies can be effective quickly. Even if more research is needed to reduce uncertainties, these strategies could be deployed in the short term. Nevertheless, these measures cannot replace efforts to reduce the sector's CO2 emissions.
CO2 effects: technological opportunities limited in the short term
By 2050, disruptive solutions will make it possible to envisage a low-carbon aircraft. In the shorter term, the only mature levers for reducing CO2 emissions within the timeframe set by the climate emergency are incremental improvements in aircraft efficiency and the use of biofuels. However, incremental improvements are on the verge of reaching their technological limits, while the constraints of energy availability, production capacity and competition over uses are likely to limit the availability of biofuels.
A necessary trade-off between traffic levels and the share of the global carbon budget allocated to the aviation sector
Apart from technological and operational levers, the level of traffic and the share of the global carbon budget allocated to aviation are the two parameters that determine the sustainability of a trajectory for the aviation sector. Their value must be set by political decisions. The limits on the aviation sector's ability to rapidly reduce its CO2 emissions imply that, if traffic grows at the rate envisaged by the aviation industry, it will consume a larger share of the carbon budget than its current share of emissions, thus requiring other sectors of activity to reduce their emissions faster than the average.
Uncertainties over energy availability
The decarbonisation of aviation fuels could be limited by the availability of low-carbon energy resources. Their massive use could then lead to a displacement of environmental problems, particularly related to land use. Generally speaking, it is necessary to consider the transition of the aviation sector in a systemic way within the framework of planetary limits.
Consult our "aviation and climate" guidelines
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