This 200-page report is the fruit of a year’s work by a team of 5 teacher-researchers and the Institute’s sustainable development manager. Accompanied by a 15-page summary, it is based on more than 200 scientific publications and the latest reports from institutions in the aeronautical sector. The researchers have supplemented this reference framework by integrating research results specific to ISAE-SUPAERO. The entire document has undergone a rigorous review process, both internally and by recognised scientific experts in the aviation sector, climatology, energy, etc.
The writing of this reference report was motivated by questions relating to the impact of aviation on the climate. Is it possible to characterise the impact of aviation on the climate? Can we compare CO2 and non-CO2 effects? What are the technological solutions and avenues for innovation linked to aviation and the climate? Can we link the rate of growth in air traffic to the proportion of the carbon budget devoted to aviation? Can we assess the energy resources available?
A collaborative tool
The aim of this work is not to take sides or to provide answers to the various questions raised, as the answers depend largely on societal choices and techno-economic developments that are impossible to predict with any certainty.
On the other hand, the aim is to provide everyone, on the basis of scientists’ positions, with the information they need to form informed opinions on these issues, as objectively as possible. The scientists hope to stimulate debate and thus contribute to the emergence of a collective position on these crucial issues.
This reference guide sets out the state of the art of the various levers that the aviation sector can use to reduce its environmental impact.
Key messages for low-carbon aviation
The purpose of the ISAE-SUPAERO Aviation and Climate Report is to provide scientific information useful for understanding aviation and climate issues. It consists of three main parts.
The first presents the impact of aviation on the climate, its CO2 and non-CO2 effects, while the second looks at the technological levers for reducing it.
Finally, illustrative transition scenarios for the aviation sector are proposed in the last section. This is based in particular on CAST (AEROmaps), an innovative modelling tool developed at ISAE-SUPAERO and available as a web application, which can be used to assess the climate impact of aviation as a function of variables such as traffic volume, the pace of technological change and the rate of decarbonisation of the fuel used.
- The climate impact of aviation: estimates that depend on the scope of the study
Aviation contributes to global warming through its CO2 emissions and a number of non-CO2 effects such as condensation trails. The assessment of the impact of the aviation sector can be limited to CO2 emissions alone, or it can take into account all the effects. In the first case, commercial aviation was responsible for 2.6% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2018. If all effects are considered (CO2 and non-CO2), commercial aviation accounted for 5.1% of the climate impact over the period 2000-2018.
- Non-CO2 effects: promising strategies
Specific strategies to reduce non-CO2 effects represent a major lever for limiting the climate impact of aviation. Because of the short lifespan of non-CO2 effects, these strategies can be effective very quickly. Even if more research is needed to reduce uncertainties, these strategies could be deployed in the short term. Nevertheless, these measures cannot replace efforts to reduce the sector’s CO2 emissions.
- CO2 effects: technological opportunities limited in the short term
Between now and 2050, breakthrough solutions offer the prospect of a low-carbon aircraft. In the shorter term, the only mature levers for reducing CO2 emissions within the timeframe set by the climate emergency are incremental improvements in aircraft efficiency and the use of biofuels. However, incremental improvements are on the verge of reaching their technological limits, while the constraints of energy availability, production capacity and competition over uses are likely to limit the availability of biofuels.
- A necessary trade-off between traffic levels and the share of the global carbon budget allocated to the aviation sector
Apart from technological and operational levers, the level of traffic and the share of the global carbon budget allocated to aviation are the two parameters that determine the sustainability of a trajectory for the aviation sector. Their value must be set by political decisions. The limits on the aviation sector’s ability to rapidly reduce its CO2 emissions imply that, if traffic grows at the rate envisaged by the aviation industry, it will consume a larger share of the carbon budget than its current share of emissions, thus requiring other sectors of activity to reduce their emissions faster than the average.
- Uncertainties over energy availability
The decarbonisation of aviation fuels could be limited by the availability of low-carbon energy resources. Their massive use could then lead to a displacement of environmental problems, particularly related to land use. Generally speaking, it is necessary to consider the transition of the aviation sector in a systemic way within the framework of planetary limits.
Evolving strategies
Several conclusions can be drawn from this benchmark. In particular, it reveals that the formation of clouds by aircraft condensation trails currently has a greater effect on global warming than their CO2 emissions. However, it seems possible to radically reduce these condensation trails by modifying the trajectories of a small proportion of flights: this subject, which has not yet been studied in depth, needs to be investigated as soon as possible. There are technical solutions and avenues of innovation for aviation and the climate that would make it possible to significantly reduce CO2 emissions by further improving aircraft fuel efficiency and switching to low-carbon fuels. However, it will take several decades to develop, industrialise and deploy these solutions across the entire fleet.
Based on possible scenarios between now and 2050, the report highlights the relationship between the level of air traffic in the coming decades and the share of the global carbon budget allocated to aviation. This document is aimed at players in the aviation sector, to help them define their decarbonisation strategies, while contributing to the public debate by providing the most objective possible insight into a subject that is as complex as it is important.
Standards and summary of standards :
Photo of the team of 6 authors from ISAE-SUPAERO: 5 teachers-researchers and the sustainable development manager
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